Do not believe in oil price forecasts

Recently, US analysts expected oil prices will rise to 150 USD / barrel by 2025. But General Director of the National Energy Security Fund Konstantin Simonov shared on Sputnik that such predictions are absurd, unreliable things.

The "The Wall Street Journal" of the United States recently cited the views of energy experts in the country that oil prices could rise to a record of 150 USD / barrel in early 2025.

Analysts interviewed by the publication believe that a reduction in investment in oil production could have a strong impact on the black gold market, leading to higher oil prices.

Konstantin Simonov, the director of Russia’s National Energy Security Fund, said such predictions were extremely irrational and unreliable.

“Now there are many types of predictions. There was even a prediction that oil price would be $ 2, while black gold would be forecast at $ 150. Now is the time to put all the forecasts in the trash, because they are drafted not to guide us in the future, but to attract attention. The best way to attract attention is to make irrational predictions, ”he said in an interview with Sputnik.

He concludes that we must prepare for the period of normal oil production whose price fluctuates in the corridor of 40-50 dollaars per barrel. That is the best truth we should prepare.

Don’t worry about investing in oil production

Experts disagree with the idea that the shortage of financial investment for the oil and gas industry will affect future production and he gave reasons for his views.

“The idea that oil is about to run out, without enough resources, has long been back in the past. Ten years ago we were told that we were going to produce the last drop of oil, now it turns out that there is a lot of oil reserves ... So it’s naive to say that because of poor investment, humanity will not. can exploit oil "- The Russian expert said.

He gave a practical example that the US oil industry is a clear evidence for this: As soon as the price of oil has just started to rise, shale oil production is immediately restored in the United States. That is, the investment money will immediately flow into the place where there is an opportunity to produce.

He recalled that there was also a view of oil shortages, but for years, this was unconfirmed.

According to him, the idea that oil will be in short supply was launched in 2014, when the price first rose to 100 USD / barrel, then naturally plummeted. At the same time, people made similar predictions, that the industry would not be invested, and in five years we would not be able to produce oil at the same volume as today.

However, six years have passed and now the reality is that oil production is in excess in the world, oil reserves are full, and the supply is more redundant than ever ... Therefore, It is not expected that there will be no more investment, no exploitation and therefore the price of oil will increase.