Escaping measures to close because of the pandemic earlier than other countries, China has conditions to resume economic activities and travel. Oil demand in the mainland therefore also recovered quickly, reaching 90% of the threshold before the time of the pandemic.
However, the new COVID-19 outbreak in Beijing after more than 50 days without new cases in the community has raised concerns about the second wave of COVID-19 in China, affecting pepper consumption. oil and gas consumption of the country, pushing the world market into a new round of discounts.
As of this moment, the Beijing government appears to be adopting a "partial" closure strategy that has been used to handle outbreaks in northern China in April and May.
However, if the “Level 2” measures, that is, only focus on zoning the Tan Phat Diaper support area which was supposed to be the starting point for the outbreak, and the surrounding area combined with extensive testing and tracing without Restraint was translated in mid-July, most likely the city will have to switch to the group of measures to close "Level 1", associated with restrictions and prohibition of travel.
At present, there are no official instructions from the government on the grounds for moving from the "Level 2" response to "Level 1". However, analysts have two grounds for consideration. Firstly, new outbreaks are not related to the current outbreaks through traceability.
Up to now, the majority of cases confirmed positive for SARS-CoV-2 virus in Beijing have been involved in the Tan Phat Dia market. The second factor is the number of new cases exceeding 100 cases / day and lasting for 3 consecutive days - the variable has not appeared in the recent outbreak in Beijing.
As the epidemic has not grown to the point where China has to use the "Level 1" group of measures, the prospects for oil demand for the world’s second largest economy in the next few months are "positive." . Some independent consulting firms said that China’s oil consumption in this case increased by about 2% in the last 6 months of the year, reaching the threshold of 13.5 million barrels a day, mainly from transportation activities, Industrial production.
According to Bo Zhuang, the chief economist and director of the Chinese research division at Singapore-based consulting firm TS Lombard, in April and May, when China operated its epidemic control measures in “ Level 2 ”, industrial output and retail sales continue to recover.
However, the situation will be more serious if COVID-19 spreads to the neighboring provinces of Beijing, forced to impose a "Level 1" closure measure.
Mr. Bo acknowledged, curbing the outbreak in Beijing as the highest dose reagent for the Chinese government’s pandemic handling capacity after the incident in Wuhan, by Beijing’s capital, the political center, where both The world is always watching. ” The government will dedicate all resources, prioritize to quell the epidemic and therefore the ability to develop out of control in Beijing is only about 10% probability.
