Negative effects are increasing
Deputy Chairman of China National Development and Reform Commission Lien Duy Luong on February 3 had to admit that the country’s economy is facing increasing negative impacts from the boom. Acute respiratory infection is caused by a new strain of the Corona virus (2019-nCoV). However, in a move that was supposed to be reassuring, Mr. Lien Duy Luong said that the disease will only have a temporary short-term impact on the Chinese economy and that the country can fully afford it. minimizing the impact of the disease on the economy.
But in the context of the 2019-nCoV epidemic that is increasing every day in China, the reassurance of officials of the China National Development and Reform Commission has not been able to reassure anyone. According to the latest data released by the National Health Commission of China, as of 3-2 morning, the number of new Corona virus infections (2019-nCoV) in China has more than 17,200 people, including 2,829 new cases. and 57 deaths (including 56 in Hubei province) in the previous day, bringing the total number of deaths in China to 361 and 1 in the Philippines.
Before the increasingly serious and unregulated development of the acute pneumonia disease caused by the new strain of Corona virus (2019-nCoV) in China, many economists have given estimates of the economic losses that the country has. may suffer, even though the number is difficult to accurately calculate at the present time. Economists said that the economic growth of the world’s second largest economy could drop by 2% in the first quarter, equivalent to a loss of 62 billion USD.
The hardest hit at the moment are China’s service, tourism, entertainment ... sectors. Economists estimate that the 2019-nCoV epidemic could cause more than 1,000 billion yuan (US $ 144 billion) in damages to restaurants, tourism and movies during the seven days of Chinese New Year. Tourism and film industries are also facing big difficulties when travel companies are required to suspend all travel groups, major tourist destinations have been closed and all eight films are scheduled to be released. in vacation has been withdrawn.
The longer the disease spreads, the heavier the losses
Economic experts believe that, in the best case scenario, if the 2019-nCoV epidemic could quickly be stopped and stopped in April, China’s GDP growth will fall from 6.1. % in 2019 to 5.4% in this year 2020. However, if the epidemic lasts longer than the above time period, China’s economic growth in 2020 could only reach 5%, the lowest level in more than 30 years.
As neighboring countries and major economies of Asia, the 2019-nCoV epidemic also negatively affects Korea and Japan. Takahide Kiuchi, an economist at Nomura Research Institute, said that Japan’s GDP in 2020 could be reduced by 0.45%, or 2,480 billion yen (about 22.7 billion USD), if the 2019-nCoV epidemic affects tourism. Foreign visitors to the country last for one year. Meanwhile, the Seoul-based Hyundai Economic Research Institute also forecasts that South Korea’s economic growth will decrease by 0.1-0.2% in 2020 due to the impact of the 2019-nCoV epidemic in China. Quoc.
For the global economy, economic experts also believe that the 2019-nCoV epidemic also brings a "shock" three to four times larger than the SARS-CoV (Acute Respiratory Syndrome) epidemic in 2003. According to Therefore, it is estimated that direct losses may reach USD 160 billion.
How strong the blow of 2019-nCoV is on the Chinese and global economies depends on whether this pandemic is prevented sooner or later and economic response measures. To support the economy while a dangerous disease is raging, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC, Central Bank) announced on February 2 it will "pump" 1,200 billion Yuan (equivalent to 173, 8 billion USD) into markets. The Ministry of Finance of China (MOF) also said on March 3 that it would subsidize interest payments for some businesses affected by the disease. Subsidies will be based on a 50% interest rate announced by the Central Bank within a year to help businesses affected by the disease.
